After months of holding steady at 2.25%, the OCR is officially on the up again—with the RBNZ delivering a second increase on 2 September, from 2.50% to 275%.
The RBNZ is having to walk a fine line at the moment, striking a balance between what's needed to keep inflation in check, without derailing our ongoing (but still patchy) economic recovery.
Inflation's currently running higher than we'd like, at 4.1%—driven largely by high oil prices and the flow-on effects to agri and construction costs.
While it is expected to track back to the mid-point of the RBNZ's 1-3% target range by mid-2027, there are concerns that as the recovery gains further traction (forecast to happen over the coming months), it could become embedded.
(Until now, weak consumer has made it tough for businesses to pass rising costs on to customers, but that could change as the recovery—and demand—starts to pick up again.)
A gradual transition back towards a neutral OCR, estimated at around 3.00%, should help to keep inflation tracking back towards the midpoint of its 1-3% target range.
The RBNZ has said further increases are likely from here, but exactly when—and how quickly—they land will depend on how our inflation and broader economic data plays out.
With that said, here are the key OCR dates to watch for over the rest of 2026 and into 2027:
- 28 October 2026 - Monetary Policy Review & OCR
- 9 December 2026 - Monetary Policy Statement & OCR
- 10 February 2027 - Monetary Policy Review & OCR
- 17 March 2027 - Monetary Policy Statement & OCR
- 5 May 2027 - Monetary Policy Review & OCR
- 16 June 2027 - Monetary Policy Statement & OCR
Whatever the next few months might bring, you can always catch our latest analysis on the situation over on the Squirrel blog, helping to make sense of what the RBNZ announcements mean for Kiwi homeowners and our housing market.
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*There are two types of OCR announcement. Quarterly Monetary Policy Statements (in bold) are more in-depth – and may be where the RBNZ revises its forecasts. Monetary Policy Reviews are more of an interim update, or check-in, between MPS announcements.